Twofish's Blog

March 18, 2008

Iceberg tips

Filed under: china, tibet — twofish @ 1:48 pm

This is very interesting

 http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-China-Tibet.html

I do suspect that there is a lot of conversations that are happening behind the scenes.  It is known that the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama have a communciations channel, and I do think it has been used a lot in the last week, and the public conversation between Wen Jiabao and the Dalai Lama is the tip of an iceberg of private conversations.

My expectation is that there will be some sort of very subtle signal back in Chinese state media.  The signal will be that there won’t be a mention of the Dalai Lama clique and second that there will be some phrase that hasn’t been heard before.  I also suspect that what happened was that on 3/10 when the demonstrations started that Beijing and Dharmsala started talking, and there was an agreement that Beijing would not crackdown and the Dhamasala would keep the demonstration under control.  For about three days, there were peaceful demonstrations and the police were unusually restrained.  On 3/14, the quiet agreement fell apart, and this is the main reason that Beijing has been blaming the Dalai Lama for the riots.

The main reason I think this is happening is that I was involved in the “Great Tibetan USENET Flamewar of 1992” when something like this happened, but that is another story.

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