I’m starting to focus a bit more. Right now I’m trying to get out of “creative, million idea” mode and into “learn this information deeply” mode. The two papers that I’m reading is one by Peter Carr that describes the time evolution of the “volatility smile” and the other one is a long dry description of the changed to the China company law.
One thing which is relevant to my ideas about Chinese companies is that I’m not a fan of the idea of “private ownership makes companies run better” because I’ve worked in private companies in the United States, and have seen some pretty silly things happen in them. The reason, in my opinion, market economies work isn’t that “private owners don’t do stupid things” is that they have “hard budget constraints.” If you do something bad, eventually you run out of money. So as a result in the conversation between finance people and management people, I tend on the finance side.